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Source: foreclosurepulse.com
Fed Calls Another Running Play at Fourth and Goal
Looking at fourth down and goal with time running out, and having resorted to every trick in the playbook, including lending billions to help out the nation s and the world s struggling financial systems, Ben Bernanke and his team over at the Federal Open Market Committee tried a run up the middle one more time Wednesday, lowering the ever-popular federal funds rate by half a percent to 1 percent.
A huge rally on Wall Street the day before (almost 900 points) anticipated the cut, although some analysts were hoping for more than 50 basis points. More importantly, many are looking for this move to signal the lowering of mortgage rates to help out struggling homeowners trying desperately to stay in their homes.
In its official statement, the Federal Open Market Committee for the first time in many months did not cite the nation s continuing housing contraction as one of the primary reasons for the cut.
This time the committee is citing a decline in consumer spending, slow economic activity overseas and the intensification of financial market turmoil as key concerns. AND, the committee seems to be patting itself on the back this time for all of its recent policy decisions, although it still admitted that downside risks to growth remain.
As The New York Times is reporting, the Commerce Dept. released its report on consumer spending this morning and the news is not good. Personal consumption for Q3 2008 fell at an annual rate of 3.1 percent, the biggest drop since 1980, when the economy was in a deep recession.
Jobs are being cut all over the country, people are losing their homes to foreclosure and credit card debt is out of control. All told, many analysts are already declaring that the American economy is now officially in a recession.
According to figures provided by the Federal Reserve, consumers in this country have charged up $900 billion in credit card debt. The Associated Press reported in BusinessWeek this week that the Financial Services Roundtable, a financial industry alliance, and the Consumer Federation of America have joined forces in asking federal regulators to do something to reduce consumer credit card debt by as much as 40 percent.
Between credit card debt and a full-blown mortgage crisis on its hands, the Fed is less worried about inflation at this juncture and more focused on the reluctance of banks to loan money, according to the Times.
Whether this is the Fed s last hurrah before a new administration takes office in January or not remains to be seen. Still, the next president is going to inherit many problems, and a glut of foreclosures appears to be one of them.
Potential homebuyers and real estate investors looking for bargain properties will probably have at least all of 2009 and maybe even 2010 to shop around. There is obviously more pain to come before we see daylight at the end of this tunnel.
What do you think about the Fed s latest move? Will it make a difference where you live in terms of reducing foreclosure activity? We d like to hear your opinion.
Source: foreclosurepulse.com
No Quick Fix for Calif. Housing, Economists Predict
Three prominent California economists painted a rocky road ahead for the California housing market. Speaking at the California Association of Realtors convention in Long Beach, Calif., Nancy Dayton Sidhu, Stuart Gabriel and Richard K. Green said the nation and California are in a recession that could last until the end of 2009.
We have a very severe credit crunch going on, said Sidhu, vice president and senior economist at the Kyser Center for Economic Research. About 85 percent of banks have tightened their lending standards. This is an issue. That s where the problems are in the economy.
Sidhu forecasted that the recession would last through 2009, followed by a moderate recovery thereafter and economic expansion by 2010 or 2011.
Gabriel, a professor of finance and director of the Richard S. Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA, predicted that we re not going to have a Great Depression, but we are going to have a recession. The labor market will contract, causing consumer spending to contract.
Gabriel predicted that California will be the first to emerge from the economic downturn. California will see the up turn in housing before any other state, Gabriel said.
The federal government s rescue efforts could ease the financial markets, making it easier for borrowers to find loans, according to Richard K. Green, director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate Development at the University of Southern California.
Banks don t trust each other right now, said Green. They just don t know what s on their balance sheets. But I m still very bullish on California. I m far more optimistic this week than last week.
Will the housing sector lead the nation and California out of the recession? What are your thoughts?
Source: foreclosurepulse.com